I had this conversation with John on whether Newcastle United can still get to Carabao Cup final

Can Newcastle United still reach the Carabao Cup final?

Indeed, can Newcastle United still retain their Carabao Cup trophy?

I had the debate below this morning via email, with my mate John.

Like the rest of you, dealing with the fallout from Tuesday night at St James’ Park.

Newcastle United losing 2-0 to Manchester City in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.

This is the exchange of emails this morning which you might find interesting, or maybe not.

John:

‘At 0-1, I still thought we had a chance of getting to the final but not now. Is the optimist in you thinking differently?’

Myself:

‘Just like Arsenal away last year, we need to play really well at the Etihad and get the luck that was missing last night.

Goals change games and if we get one, then it is possible, if improbable, for us to do something remarkable.

Man City have lost 2-0 at home this season to Spurs and Leverkusen, we are better than both those teams.

We should have won by at least two or three in the home PL match against Man City.

As I say, improbable but not impossible.’

John:

‘Love the optimism!

Looking forward to seeing you in your ‘I told you so T-shirt’. That would be unreal…’

Myself:

‘It is not optimism, it is reality.

I am not saying it will happen, I am saying it can happen.

The same as if you ask me, can we still win the Carabao Cup this season.

Just had a look at the odds from the bookies.

You can back NUFC to get to the final now, at a best price of 16/1, so a one in 17 chance, roughly a 6% possibility as they see it.

To win the trophy again we are best price 25/1, so a one in 26 chance. Around 4%.

Football fans want absolutes, which is just daft. Anything can happen in any match.

Imagine if at the Etihad in the first five minutes, their keeper gets sent off whilst giving a penalty away, which Newcastle United then score.

Just from that one moment, what do Newcastle’s odds then suddenly change to, of getting to the final?’

What do you think, impossible or improbable?

What is fact for sure, irrefutable, is that Newcastle United remain one of only four teams that can still win the 2026 Carabao Cup.