A massive extra advantage becomes apparent for Newcastle v Southampton semi-final second leg

It’s Newcastle v Southampton tomorrow night.

Not sure about you but for me, the nerves / excitement are already starting to kick in.

If you are a betting man (or woman) then maybe best to get down the bookies and stick a few quid on me putting in for a half day tomorrow, as I think I will need to start on the drink to calm those nerves a bit earlier than 5pm or so on Tuesday.

Maybe better to describe it as nervous excitement, as I am very confident that Newcastle v Southampton will turn out ok.

This isn’t arrogance, as I totally accept the Saints could come to St James’ Park and turn it around, that’s football. Just look at how they won 2-0 against Man City in the previous round, Pep Guardiola’s side not having a single effort on target.

However, Newcastle United do have a massive favourite’s chance of getting to Wembley based on any number of factors…

A goal up from the first leg.

Playing this second leg at home.

Newcastle United showing themselves to have the third best Premier League form so far this season, now past the halfway point.

Southampton showing themselves to have the twentieth best Premier League form so far this season, now past the halfway point.

Newcastle have a 40 goals better goal difference than Southampton (+22 v -18).

Newcastle have scored 16 more goals than Southampton in the PL (33 v 17).

Newcastle have conceded 24 less goals than Southampton in the PL (11 v 35).

Newcastle have already emerged as the winner against Southampton twice this season.

However, even taking all the above into consideration, this is still a one-off cup match, albeit one where NUFC are at home and already 1-0 up. If it did go wrong on Tuesday night, there is no rescuing the situation by picking up points in the following games, as is the case in the Premier League.

With this in mind, another massive extra advantage has become apparent to me for this Newcastle v Southampton, all or nothing, cup match.

CARABAO CUP RULES

12.5 If the aggregate score is level at the end of ninety minutes in either:

12.5.1 the second leg of the Semi-Final; or

12.5.2 in the Final Tie,

an extra half hour shall be played and if the aggregate score is still level at the end of extra time the winner of that Competition Match shall be determined by the taking of kicks from the penalty mark in accordance with procedures as approved by IFAB.

So unlike the previous rounds, it isn’t 90 minutes plus whatever minimal added time they allow to get a result.

Instead, if the (aggregate) score is level at the end of the usual length of the match, it will be another 30 minutes (plus added time).

I honestly think this is a huge safety net if things don’t go our way on Tuesday night.

Compared to going to the immediate toss of the coin chances of penalties, if the tie is level at the end of the 90 minutes tomorrow, Eddie Howe and his players then would have another 30+ minutes to win the tie, in front of 50,000 Newcastle fans.

Put it this way, if you asked Nathan Jones and his Southampton players, they would undoubtedly prefer it if this semi-final went straight to penalties if they could get a one goal winning score at St James’ Park.

At Tranmere it could easily have ended up on penalties in that early round, Newcastle going a goal down but thankfully came back with two goals of their own.

Against Palace it was an ever bigger scare, as Palace for one of three times this season managed to somehow keep the 90 minutes goalless, only three outstanding Nick Pope penalty shoot-out saves rescued NUFC at the end of a goalless 90 minutes.

Newcastle dominated against Bournemouth and did everything but score, ending up going through thanks to an own goal.

Whilst the Leicester match ended up the most comfortable, an hour’s bombardment at last seeing Burn score the first in a 2-0 win.

As I said above, in football it is always possible for anything to happen.

However, with Nick Pope on a 10 match run of not conceding a goal, to then concede two would be a massive surprise / shock, whilst one goal is always a possibility in any game, no matter what your form is.

Even if Southampton did get the one goal and it ended 1-1 on aggregate at 90 minutes, NUFC would still have another 30+ minutes to complete the job, rather than the lottery of penalties straight away.

Even if the Saints did manage two goals, very difficult to see Newcastle not managing at least one of their own. Even though a few recent games have seen goals difficult to come by. The team have still been playing well, creating plenty of chances, apart form at Arsenal where it was shut up shop case in the second half to become the first PL team not to lose at The Emirates this season.

As I say just a bit of a safety net in this descending order of possibilities in the 90 minutes of Newcastle v Southampton tomorrow night:

Newcastle win on Tuesday night and go through comfortably on aggregate.

Newcastle draw on Tuesday and go through on aggregate not so comfortably.

Newcastle lose by one goal and have another 30+ minutes to win the tie.

Newcastle lose by 2+ goals and lose the tie.

In all of the first three scenarios I see Newcastle United able to take us to Wembley.

As for the fourth possibility…I’m definitely putting in for that half day holiday on Tuesday afternoon now.