Harvey Barnes finds himself in Catch 22 situation

Harvey Barnes arrived on the pitch after 63 minutes on Sunday, the match goalless between Newcastle United and Crystal Palace.

Fifteen minutes later, the match had been won.

Newcastle United scoring twice and then going on to dominate the remainder of the match, when they could and should have made it more than 2-0.

Harvey Barnes was excellent.

You won’t find his name on the scoresheet against Crystal Palace, or indeed credited for an assist.

However, Bruno Guimaraes and Barnes were the attacking driving forces most responsible for a final half hour that United increasingly dominated and when NUFC scored the goals and won the game.

The question then, for many Newcastle United fans, is how can Eddie Howe possibly leave Harvey Barnes out of his starting eleven???

Whilst I certainly would never be disappointed to see Harvey Barnes named in the Newcastle United starting eleven, I think there is a conundrum, a Catch 22 situation when it comes to Eddie Howe and Barnes.

As in, I believe that in general terms, over the course of however many matches, there is an argument that you get far more out of Harvey Barnes playing him off the bench for the final 30 minutes of games, than you get from him regularly playing him the first 60+ minutes of matches.

His real superpower of course is creating chances and especially his finishing. Very unlucky on both fronts against Crystal Palace, denied by Dean Henderson and what he did, should have for sure directly led to one or more teammates (Hello Joe Willock!) scoring.

It was no surprise to me just how good Harvey Barnes was on Sunday.

Crystal Palace have so many players missing and are having to play more or less the same team every match, weekend and midweek, so they are becoming more and more knackered as matches progress, the same happened for them when before Newcastle, they led at home to Fulham but conceded late on and should really have lost in the end, as the opposition took advantage of their fatigue.

This is perfect territory for Harvey Barnes, he is so often devastating when introduced against a tiring opposition.

Barnes hasn’t got electric pace or elite dribbling ability, I think he is good on both fronts, but it is when he gets into goalscoring positions and/or where he can create for others, that he becomes such an elite player. Doing this from the start of matches against a fresh and not tired opposition makes it far more difficult to get into those dangerous positions.

In all competitions, Harvey Barnes this season has now started 14 games and came off the bench in 14.

The winger has nine direct goal contributions (scored seven and two assists) in 1,396 minutes, at an average of 155 minutes per direct goal involvement. So in less than two matches worth of minutes (180, 2 x 90), Harvey Barnes will on average deliver a goal or an assist.

Incidentally, looking below, the past six and a half years of Premier League action for Harvey Barnes, shows he gets on average a PL direct goal involvement every 152 minutes. These are really top notch stats.

It is a tough one for Eddie Howe, what to do with a player who so often scores and creates, though even more productively off the bench.

My guess is that the trend will continue, Barnes starting and coming off the bench in pretty much equal numbers, as he has done with 14 of each so far. With Elanga having missed recent games and Eddie Howe saying after Sunday that Murphy was subbed late on due to feeling tightness in his hamstring, the decision may be forced anyway on Wednesday when Newcastle play Leeds.

Both Gordon and Barnes far prefer to play on the left, maybe this time if Howe feels he has to play both of them, we might see the former Everton winger doing a shift on the right and Harvey getting his preferred slot.

Back when Newcastle United signed Harvey Barnes

Despite the Leicester City relegation at the end of the 2022/23 season, Harvey Barnes still scored 13 Premier League goals from his wing position and was top scorer for the club, 13 goals from 32 PL starts is mighty impressive when you consider how poor Leicester were overall.

Back then in summer 2023, I remember most Leicester fans were quick to praise the quality of Harvey Barnes and how good he had been for the Foxes.

However, a sizeable minority were keen to claim that; “All Harvey Barnes does is…score and create goals!”

This is his Premier League record these last six and a half Premier League seasons.

From the start of the 2019/20 Premier League season onwards, the first four for Leicester and then two and a half for NUFC.

My only surprise is how surprised so many people are, at just how good and productive Harvey Barnes has been!

2019/20 Premier League (Leicester City)

14 Direct Goal involvements (6 goals and 8 assists) – 2,094 PL minutes played

A Harvey Barnes direct goal involvement once every 149 minutes

2020/21 Premier League (Leicester City)

13 Direct Goal involvements (9 goals and 4 assists) – 1,950 PL minutes played

A Harvey Barnes direct goal involvement once every 150 minutes

2021/22 Premier League (Leicester City)

16 Direct Goal involvements (6 goals and 10 assists) – 2,107 PL minutes played

A Harvey Barnes direct goal involvement once every 131 minutes

2022/23 Premier League (Leicester City)

14 Direct Goal involvements (13 goals and 1 assist) – 2,720 PL minutes played

A Harvey Barnes direct goal involvement once every 194 minutes

2023/24 Premier League (Newcastle United)

8 Direct Goal involvements (5 goals and 3 assists) – 795 PL minutes played

A Harvey Barnes direct goal involvement once every 99 minutes

2024/25 Premier League (Newcastle United)

13 Direct Goal involvements (9 goals and 4 assists) – 1,756 PL minutes played

A Harvey Barnes direct goal involvement once every 135 minutes

2025/26 Premier League (Newcastle United)

3 Direct Goal involvements (3 goals and 0 assists) – 860 PL minutes played

A Harvey Barnes direct goal involvement once every 287 minutes

Total Harvey Barnes Direct Goal involvements these past six and a half Premier League seasons (for Leicester and Newcastle):

81 Direct Goal involvements 51 goals and 30 assists) – 12,282 PL minutes played

A Harvey Barnes direct goal involvement once every 152 Premier League minutes, from the start of the 2019/20 PL season onwards across six and a half Premier League seasons.